Saturday, August 3, 2013

pt2 live cattle prices (rain trouble)

e: ... we have rain trouble ... almost no new rain for a week ... [update: it rained 0.25 inches just after i wrote this post.]

... there is fear that the grass that has begun to grow will burn up and die ... or that we have all that we will get ... there is fear that the remaining ranchers who have not yet sold out will begin to do so ... more supply for sale would push prices down again ...

... i am looking for prices to immediately fall lower on aug 5 and aug 6 ... failure to immediately fall lower jeopardizes this bearish stance ...

... august contract closed at 120.65 ... i am  looking down to 115 over next 2-4 weeks against resistance at 122 ...

... october contract closed at 124.475 ... i am looking down to 119 over next 2-4 weeks against resistance 126 ...

... any unexpected push past those cited resistance levels would instead strongly suggest that the lows for the year were made at the may/june lows.
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ranch precipitation record 2013
-----------
mar        8             trace        rain
             9              trace       snow
apr      18              0.25"      snow
may       6              0.1         rain
           10              0.2          "
-----------
jul        3              0.35         "
           4              0.2           "
           5              0.25         "
           7              0.2           "
         11              1.25         "
         12              0.5           "
         15              0.3           "
         16              0.1           "
         21              0.1           "
         24              0.2           "
         25              0.4           "
         26              0.1           "
         27              0.2           "
-----------
          29            trace         "

aug      1             trace         "
           2              0.1          "
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see also:

need rain by aug 3 (or trouble)
http://adventuresofagreenhorn.blogspot.com/2013/07/need-rain-by-aug-3-or-trouble.html